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This winter, Niseko is set for an exceptional ski season as a La Niña weather pattern is expected to bring above-average snowfall. La Niña, meaning “little girl” in Spanish, occurs when Pacific Ocean surface temperatures drop below average for six months or more, affecting global weather patterns.
What La Niña means for Niseko
For Niseko, La Niña brings consistently cold, northwesterly winds from Siberia, resulting in almost daily snowfalls, often in large quantities. This phenomenon creates the perfect conditions for heavy, frequent snow and powder days in Niseko’s ski resorts.
Forecasts and predictions
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported a 71% chance of this climate phenomenon developing by winter and persisting through January to March 2025. Similarly, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) estimates a 60% likelihood of this weather pattern, forecasting a 40% chance of above-average snowfall between December and February.
Expected snowfall levels
Historical data from JMA shows that in the past 30 ski seasons, Niseko has experienced these conditions in eight of them, with these seasons averaging 11 meters of snow, compared to 10.1 meters in non-La Niña years. Higher altitudes on Niseko’s ski slopes receive even more snow due to the orographic effect, with Grand Hirafu Ski Resort recording annual totals between 12-16 meters.
Consistent, high-quality snow
This cooling phase doesn’t just bring more snow; it also enhances the quality and consistency of the snowfall. During La Niña seasons, Niseko typically experiences an average of 97 snow days, compared to 87 in non-La Niña seasons. Cold temperatures ensure that the snow remains dry and powdery—ideal for skiing and snowboarding.
La Niña’s increasing frequency
This winter marks the fourth La Niña in the past five years since the onset of COVID in 2020-21. Last year saw El Niño conditions, which have since shifted back to neutral. Multi-year La Niñas, such as the “triple-dip” between 2020 and 2023, are historically rare, occurring only two or three times since 1950. However, the increasing frequency of these climate events is contributing to more extreme weather patterns.
Are you ready for some epic powder days in Niseko this winter? Get set for a season of exceptional snow and unforgettable skiing experiences.
Source: Powderlife
Watch more: How powder snow supports joint health while skiing
